The Whakaata Māori-Curia poll of voters enrolled in the Hauraki-Waikato electorate found Te Pāti Māori and Labour separated by one percentage point in party-vote support, on 22% and 21% respectively. The Green Party followed on 16%.

Excluding undecided respondents, Te Pāti Māori recorded 26%, compared with 33% at the 2023 election. Labour recorded 24%, compared with 45%, while Green Party support increased from 7% to 19%.

In the electorate vote, Hana-Rawhiti Maipi-Clarke of Te Pāti Māori recorded 45% support, followed by Labour’s Kingi Kiriona on 26%. Other responses accounted for 13%, while 17% of respondents were unsure.

Excluding undecided respondents, Maipi-Clarke recorded 54% support and Kiriona 31%, with other responses accounting for 15%.

Sixty one per cent of respondents said that incumbent Hana-Rawhiti Maipi-Clarke had done a good job over the past three years. Twenty four per cent said she had done an average job, while 6% said she had done a poor job.  Nine per cent were unsure.

Sixty-four per cent of respondents said the Kiingitanga should have a formal role in New Zealand’s political and constitutional system. Twenty-four per cent disagreed and 12% were unsure. Support was higher among respondents aged 18–39, at 73%, compared with 49% among those aged 60 and over.

Cost of living was the most important local issue that could affect respondents’ votes, selected by 35%. Te Tiriti o Waitangi followed on 13%, with hauora / healthcare and housing each on 10%. Infrastructure and local council and regional development were each selected by 5%. Education, mahi / jobs and the environment each recorded 4%, followed by roading and transport isolation on 2% and law and order on 1%. Other issues accounted for 3%, while 5% were unsure.

Asked what the next Government’s highest priority should be to improve outcomes for Māori, 26% selected honouring Te Tiriti o Waitangi, followed by reducing poverty and homelessness on 24%. Improving health and education outcomes was selected by 20%, support for mental health and drug addiction by 13%, and addressing the Māori unemployment rate by 12%. Other responses accounted for 6%.

Eighty-four per cent of Hauraki-Waikato respondents said it was somewhat or very important that their electorate MP was willing to stand up to their own party on issues that matter to Māori. Forty-one per cent said it was very important and 43% somewhat important.

Other findings from the poll included:

• Forty seven per cent believed the Crown wasn’t upholding its Waikato-Tainui Treaty settlement commitments to restore and protect the Waikato River. Twenty-six per cent believed the Crown was upholding its commitments and 27% were unsure.

• Asked what the Government’s focus should be to improve Māori health, 44% selected improving the single health system for all New Zealanders. Granting funding and resources to Māori health providers was selected by 28%, while 22% selected re-establishing Te Aka Whai Ora, the independent Māori Health Authority. Five per cent were unsure.

• "Gets the mahi done” was the most common first-ranked quality when respondents were asked what mattered when choosing an electorate MP, selected first by 39%. “Working effectively with other parties” was the most common fourth-ranked quality, at 33%.

These poll results will be put to candidates in the Hauraki-Waikato electorate debate hosted by Whakaata Māori, moderated by Maiki Sherman and Julian Wilcox and broadcast live on Whakaata Māori and MĀORI+ at 7.00pm on 6 October. It will also be streamed live on the Te Ao Māori News app, Facebook and YouTube channels.

The Whakaata Māori-Curia poll was conducted between 21 September and 1 October 2026 among 500 Māori adults aged 18 and over who reported being enrolled on the Māori roll in Hauraki-Waikato. Of these, 420 participated by phone and 80 through an online panel. Results were weighted by gender and age, using census-based gender targets and age targets based on turnout in Hauraki-Waikato at the 2023 election. The maximum margin of error for the overall sample is ±4.5 percentage points at the 95% confidence level. Subgroup results have higher margins of error. Percentages may not total 100% because of rounding.

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