The Whakaata Māori-Curia poll of voters enrolled in the Te Tai Hauāuru electorate has Labour leading party-vote support on 26%. The Greens are second on 19%, followed by Te Pāti Māori on 16%. NZ Outdoors & Freedom and National each recorded 5%, while Vision NZ recorded 4%. Opportunity (TOP) and NZ First each recorded 3%. NZ Loyal recorded 2% support, with four parties – Te Tai Tokerau Party, Conservatives, Women’s Rights and ACT – all on 1%. Thirteen percent of respondents were unsure.

Excluding undecided respondents, Te Pāti Māori recorded 18%, down 18 percentage points from the 36% it recorded in 2023. Labour recorded 30%, compared with 42% in 2023, while Green Party support rose 14 percentage points to 22%, up from the 8% it recorded in 2023. Opportunity (TOP) recorded 4% compared with 1% in 2023.  NZ First was unchanged at 4% and National was up one percentage point to 6%. NZ Outdoors & Freedom was up 5 percentage points to 6%. ACT was unchanged on 1%.

In the race for the electorate vote, Te Pāti Māori co-leader Debbie Ngarewa-Packer is leading with 38% support. Labour’s Te Pūoho Kātene is second on 27%, followed by National’s Coral Raukawa on 10%. Other candidate responses accounted for 6%, and 18% of respondents were unsure.

Excluding undecided respondents, Debbie Ngarewa-Packer attracted 46% support, Te Pūoho Kātene was on 34% and Coral Raukawa was in third place with 13%. Other responses accounted for 7%.

Thirty seven percent of respondents said that incumbent Debbie Ngarewa-Packer had done a good job over the past three years. Forty one percent said she had done an average job, while 13% said she had done a poor job.  Nine percent were unsure.

The most important issue for Te Tai Hauāuru voters was cost of living, selected by 36% of respondents. Hauora / healthcare and environment were each selected by 9%, followed by Te Tiriti o Waitangi and housing on 8% each. Mahi / jobs and local council and regional development were each selected by 7%.

Twenty nine percent of Te Tai Hauāuru respondents said the highest priority for the next Government when it comes to improving outcomes for Māori was ‘Honouring Te Tiriti o Waitangi’ followed by ‘Reducing poverty and homelessness’ (26%). Twenty one percent selected ‘Improving health and education outcomes’, while 12% thought the highest priority was ‘Support for mental health and drug addiction’. ‘Addressing the Māori unemployment rate’ was selected by 11% of respondents.

Eighty five percent of respondents in Te Tai Hauāuru said that it was somewhat or very important for an electorate MP to stand up to their own party on the issues that matter to Māori, with 46% saying it was very important.

Other findings from the poll included:

• Fifty nine percent of respondents said there weren’t enough employment opportunities where they lived.

• Fifty one percent of respondents said that if Aotearoa / New Zealand was to form a written constitution, Māori and the Crown should lead the work together. Thirty percent said the work should be Māori-led.

• When weighing up economic development and protecting the environment, 43% of respondents said both were equally important. Twenty percent said protecting the environment was more important, 15% selected economic development, and 22% were unsure.

• "Gets the mahi done” was the most common first-ranked quality when respondents were asked what mattered when choosing an electorate MP, selected first by 33%. “Working effectively with other parties” was the most common fourth-ranked quality, at 36%.

These poll results will be put to candidates in the Te Tai Hauāuru electorate debate hosted by Whakaata Māori, moderated by Maiki Sherman and Julian Wilcox and broadcast live on Whakaata Māori and MĀORI+ at 7.00pm on 30 September. It will also be streamed live on the Te Ao Māori News App, Facebook and YouTube channel.

The Whakaata Māori-Curia poll surveyed 500 Māori adults aged 18 and over who reported being enrolled to vote in Te Tai Hauāuru between 14 and 24 September 2026. Four hundred and twenty respondents participated by phone and 80 through an online panel. Results were weighted by gender and age, using census-based gender targets and age targets based on turnout in Te Tai Hauāuru at the 2023 election. The maximum margin of error for the overall sample is ±4.5 percentage points at the 95% confidence level. Results for subgroups have a higher sampling error.

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