A Whakaata Māori exclusive poll has revealed there is only a five-point difference between Labour’s Soraya Peke-Mason and Te Pāti Māori co-leader, Debbie Ngarewa-Packer.

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The poll, conducted by Curia Market Research, was completed last week and shows Peke-Mason at 34% with Ngarewa-Packer in close pursuit on 29%.

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The field was flung open when incumbent Labour MP and Speaker of the House, Adrian Rurawhe, opted to go list-only.

Four wāhine are now vying for the crown of the western electorate, including National’s Harete Hipango – the first National candidate to stand in a Māori seat in more than two decades.

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Hipango’s arrival has captured 12% of the candidate vote in Te Tai Hauāuru and with 16% of voters still undecided, could be a fatal bite for the two main leads.  Paris Winiata of Vision NZ is yet to make the leaderboard.

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Whakaata Māori released the poll at the launch of its first live debate of the seven Māori seats from its newly opened studio, Hawaikirangi, on site in East Tāmaki.  

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The battle for Te Tai Hauāuru isn’t a final curtain call for Labour yet, who led the party vote at 34% followed by Te Pāti Māori on 22%, National 13%, NZ First 7% and the Greens on 6%.

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Chris Hipkins was the preferred prime minister on 32%, Winston Peters 12% and Debbie Ngarewa-Packer on 7% - ahead of Christopher Luxon on 6%.

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Cost of Living is the single biggest issue for voters in Te Tai Hauāuru at 27%, well ahead of the economy 9%, housing 8% taxes and health both on 7%.

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Among voters under the age of 40, however, honouring the Te Tiriti o Waitangi hits the leaderboard at 11% after Cost of Living and taxes.  

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A total of 500 registered voters in each electorate are polled by Curia Market Research by landline, mobile and online with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 per cent.  

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Te Tai Hauāuru median response was collected on Wednesday 13 September 2020.

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More Whakaata Māori polling will be released on Thursday for Ikaroa-Rāwhiti – another potential hot seat following the defection in May of former Labour cabinet minister, Meka Whaitiri, to Te Pāti Māori.

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Whaitiri goes head-to-head with Labour hope, Cushla Tangaere-Manuel, in the live Māori seat debate at 7pm.

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Join Whakaata Māori for WHAKATAU 2023 where we continue to test the pulse of the Māori electorates on air and online, MĀORI+ and teaonews.co.nz.

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DEBATE #2 - IKAROA RĀWHITI – THURS SEP 21

DEBATE #3 - TE TAI TONGA – TUES SEP 26

DEBATE #4 - WAIARIKI – THURS SEP 28

DEBATE #5 – HAURAKI-WAIKATO – TUES OCT 03

DEBATE #6 - TE TAI TOKERAU - THURS OCT 05

DEBATE #7 - TĀMAKI MAKAURAU – TUES OCT 10

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