The Whakaata Māori–Curia poll of Māori voters enrolled in Te Tai Tokerau recorded Labour on 27 per cent party-vote support and the Green Party on 25 per cent. Te Pāti Māori recorded 11 per cent, followed by NZ First on 6 per cent and National on 4 per cent. Opportunity (TOP) and Te Tai Tokerau Party each recorded 3 per cent, while NZ Loyal recorded 2 per cent. Fourteen per cent were unsure.

Excluding undecided respondents, Labour recorded 32 per cent, compared with 44 per cent in Te Tai Tokerau at the 2023 general election, a fall of 12 percentage points. The Green Party recorded 29 per cent, up from 10 per cent in 2023, while Te Pāti Māori recorded 13 per cent, down 14 percentage points from 2023 when they received 27 per cent.

In the race for the electorate vote, Green Party candidate Hūhana Lyndon led with 24 per cent support, followed by Labour candidate Willow-Jean Prime on 18 per cent. Aperahama Edwards of Te Pāti Māori recorded 17 per cent and Mariameno Kapa-Kingi of Te Tai Tokerau Party recorded 12 per cent. Another candidate was selected by 7 per cent, while 22 per cent were unsure.

Asked how Mariameno Kapa-Kingi had performed as the electorate MP, 40 per cent said she had done a good job, 27 per cent rated her performance as average, 14 per cent said she had done a poor job and 18 per cent were unsure.

The cost of living was the most important local issue that could affect respondents’ votes, selected by 34 per cent. Housing was selected by 14 per cent, followed by hauora on 9 per cent and jobs on 7 per cent.

Forty-seven per cent said housing and water should be the biggest infrastructure priority for the next government in Te Tai Tokerau. Thirty-two per cent said it should be healthcare facilities and 16 per cent identified roads and transport as the biggest priority. Five per cent were unsure.

In a separate question about whether respondents thought enough was being done to address the harm caused by methamphetamine in their communities, 61 per cent said no, 26 per cent said yes and 13 per cent were unsure.

Seventy per cent of respondents said He Whakaputanga (the 1835 Declaration of Independence) should be recognised alongside Te Tiriti o Waitangi as a constitutional document. Nine per cent disagreed and 21 per cent were unsure.

Asked whether it was time for Ngāpuhi to settle its Treaty claims with the Crown, even if this meant agreeing to one centralised financial and commercial settlement, 50 per cent said negotiations should continue. Twenty-eight per cent supported settling now and 22 per cent were unsure.

Ninety-three per cent of respondents said it was somewhat or very important for their electorate MP to stand up to their own party on issues that matter to Māori. This included 73 per cent who said it was very important.

Forty-eight per cent said all MPs should be welcomed at Waitangi commemorations regardless of their views on Te Tiriti. Seventeen per cent disagreed, 22 per cent said it depended on the MP and 13 per cent were unsure.

The poll results will be put to candidates during the Whakaata Māori Te Tai Tokerau electorate debate, moderated by Maiki Sherman and Julian Wilcox and broadcast live on Whakaata Māori and MĀORI+ at 7.00 pm on 20 October. It will also stream on the Te Ao Māori News app and its Facebook and YouTube channels.

The Whakaata Māori–Curia poll surveyed 500 Māori adults aged 18 and over who reported being enrolled on the Māori roll in Te Tai Tokerau. Fieldwork took place between 5 and 15 October 2026, with 420 respondents participating by phone and 80 through an online panel. The results were weighted by gender and age, using census-based gender targets and age targets based on turnout in Te Tai Tokerau at the 2023 election. The maximum margin of error for the overall sample is ±4.5 percentage points at the 95 per cent confidence level. Subgroup results have higher margins of error.

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