The Whakaata Māori-Curia poll of voters enrolled in Te Tai Tonga has Labour leading party-vote support on 28%, followed by the Green Party on 14%, and Te Pāti Māori on 11%. NZ First and National each recorded 6%. 10% of respondents were unsure.

Excluding undecided respondents, Te Pāti Māori recorded 12%, down 11 percentage points from 23% in the 2023 election. Labour recorded 31%, compared with 37% in 2023, while Green Party support was unchanged at 16%. NZ First recorded 7%, up one percentage point, while National was down three percentage points, from 9% to 6%.

Labour candidate Mananui Ramsden leads the electorate vote on 30%. Lisa Marie Murch of Te Pāti Māori is on 17%, Green Party candidate Lisa Te Morenga on 16%, and Independent MP Tākuta Ferris on 15%, with the three separated by two percentage points. Seventeen per cent of respondents were unsure.

Twenty nine percent of respondents said incumbent Tākuta Ferris had done a good job over the past three years. Forty one per cent said he had done an average job, while 11% said he had done a poor job.  Twenty per cent were unsure.  Respondents aged 60+ were more likely to rate him as “poor” (24%), compared with 8% of 18-39 year olds. Those aged 18-39 were more likely than those aged 60+ to rate him as “good” (37% vs 15%).

The most important issue for Te Tai Tonga voters was the cost of living (29%), followed by Hauora / Healthcare (16%). Mahi / jobs and Environment were the most important local issues for 8% of respondents, while Te Tiriti o Waitangi and Infrastructure recorded 7% each.  

Thirty per cent selected honouring Te Tiriti o Waitangi as the highest priority for the next Government in improving outcomes for Māori, followed by reducing poverty and homelessness on 24%. Improving health and education outcomes was selected by 20%, while 13% selected support for mental health and drug addiction.

Eighty percent of respondents said that it was somewhat or very important for an electorate MP to stand up to their own party on the issues that matter to Māori, with 37% saying it was very important.

Other findings from the poll included:

• Seventy per cent supported additional Government assistance for people living in remote areas because of the distance they travel for essential services.

• Sixty-one per cent of respondents wanted to keep the MMP voting system, with 24% wanting to change to another system.

• Sixty-five per cent said they had limited their household power usage over winter because of electricity costs, including 23% who had reduced it significantly and 42% who had reduced it somewhat.

These poll results will be put to candidates during the Te Tai Tonga electorate debate, moderated by Maiki Sherman and Julian Wilcox and broadcast live on Whakaata Māori and MĀORI+ at 7.00pm on 29 September. The debate will also be streamed live through the Te Ao Māori News app, Facebook and YouTube channels.

The Whakaata Māori-Curia poll surveyed 500 Māori adults aged 18 and over who were enrolled to vote in Te Tai Tonga between 14 and 24 September 2026. Four hundred and twenty respondents participated by phone and 80 through an online panel. The results were weighted to reflect the Māori adult population of Te Tai Tonga by gender and age. The maximum margin of error for the overall sample is ±4.5 percentage points at the 95% confidence level.

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